Let’s take a quick look at last week’s rainfall across the Southeast U.S. Rainfall was scattered in coverage, and in the range of 0.50 – 1.00 inch across many spots. Somewhat heavier rainfall, 2 inch or more, occurred over much of Mississippi and Alabama, as well as smaller portions of the Carolinas (yellow and reds).
For the week, rainfall was consistently above-normal over Mississippi and Alabama, but more hit-or-miss elsewhere.
Once again, it looks like a quiet week across most of the Southeast U.S. with the jet stream anchored well to our north. Initially, the jet will dip into the Tennessee Valley before lifting further north by weeks end. With the jet lifting north – organized systems are not likely over the region.
An exception will be along the immediate Gulf coast and across Northwest and North Florida. A weak stalled front will tend to focus heavier rainfall within this region.
Rainfall and Runoff Analysis
With the exception of the Gulf coast, rainfall over the region will average below-normal this week. With soils already dry (except Alabama and Mississippi), runoff potential will remain very low. With the possibility of tropical moisture next week, I have increased the outlook a bit. 
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