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For the past few weeks the Southeast U.S. has experienced scattered daily thunderstorms more days than not.   However, if we take a look at how much rain actually fell, and the overall coverage, we see that many spots received below-normal rainfall.  This image shows the percent of normal rainfall from last week.  Areas in blue and purple received above-normal rainfall and reds and yellows received below-normal amounts of precipitation.  You can easily see that many spots received below-normal rainfall, especially over North Carolina.  Take a look out west, in Texas, where zero rain fell last week and no rain is expected this week as well.


Here are some of the primary factors driving the weather this week.  It’s fairly similar to last week.  A strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the west with continuing hot and dry weather.  A dip in the jet over the eastern U.S. will allow a front to drop south from time to time.  Scattered thunderstorms will form over the Southeast U.S. just about every day this week.  Coverage will depend on the strength of lift.  When lift is exclusively due to daytime heating, most likely coverage will be limited.   However, on days when a front drops south, rainfall coverage will be more extensive.  I suspect that the week will again be “hit or miss” as to rainfall, but likely a bit more rain than last week — both in coverage and intensity.


Let’s keep an eye on the tropics.  Here are the current steering flows.  Due to the ridge of high pressure over the U.S. — any tropical system that move into the Gulf of Mexico is likely to move east towards South Texas or Mexico (yellow arrows).  Any system that comes in from the Atlantic (further north in latitude) is likely to re-curve northeast.  So, at least this week, it is not likely that tropical systems will impact the Southeast U.S.


Finally, here is the rainfall outlook from the NWS HPC.  Keep in mind that it is extremely difficult to pin-point the specific alignment of precipitation.    You might remember that I mentioned that central and southern Georgia could start to receive a bit more rain, over areas of drought.  It still looks like the fronts that drop south will tend to stall and dissipate over this region, which could enhance rainfall. 

Weekly Take Away Points

  • Scattered thunderstorms almost every day
  • Coverage some days minimal, other days extensive
  • Organized tropical activity not expected
  • A bit more rain over the core of drought
  • Temperatures help in check due to clouds and rainfall

If you would like a national water outlook – click here.