It looks like there will be significant changes in precipitation trends starting late this week and continuing through much of next week.
As the record negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) begins to moderate, the upper jet stream will relax and eventually align in a split flow. There will be a northerly branch (red) as well as a southerly branch (blue). A split flow pattern often enhances precipitation over southern and southeast sections of the nation.
The southerly branch looks quite active with multiple pulses of energy rotating out of the Southwest U.S. towards the east and northeast. You might remember that I often mention the importance of where the tightest thermal boundary sets up. This is the area where the alighment of heaviest rain (or snow) is likely to occur. At this time, it looks like the axis of heaviest rainfall will extend from eastern sections of Oklahoma, across Arkansas, eastward. However, surrounding states should also receive significant precipition.
Here is model output for precipitation amouts out through April 12th. The actual amounts and coverage will likely change, but I think that the southwest flow pattern is likely to enhance precipitation and recharge soil moisture.
Thus, it looks like soil moisture will ne increased next week over parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. In this soil moisture change image, blue indicates increased levels of soil moisture.
You might remember the record snow event that occurred recently from Colarado, across Kansas, into Missouri eastward. Here is an image showing the “sublimation” of the snow cover. Through a process similar to evaporation, water molecules are trying to leave the water content of the snow. Sublimation is when water molecules escape from a solid – such as snow. Low relative humidity and sun tends to increase levels of sublimation. With plenty of sunshine and dry air yesterday, there was plenty of sublimation across most of the snowpack, as indicated by yellow shades.