Morning Update for Hurricane Sandy
So far, a few outbands of rain have brushed coastal sections of North Carolina and Virginia (below). Maximum rainfall totals were in the 2-locally 4-inch range.
Currently, outer rain bands continue to push on-shore over the Outer Banks, and inl;and as far as Rocky Mount and Kinston.
Despite Sandy being well off-shore storm surge can be expected along coastal North Carolina and Virginia.
As of 8 a.m. Sandy was a Cat 1. Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Movement was NE at 10 mph. The movement is closely following the GFS-model track with this NE direction.
06z GFS model ensembles show a very tight model cluster that indicates a landfall over New Jersey. If this is the case, the strongest on-shore winds (and potential for surge issues) would ne near and north of the center of the storm. (12z hurricane models confirm this track).
Intensity ensemble models show a steady low catagory I storm until near landfall.
Winds could near, or exceed, tropical storm force speed, over areas shaded in brown or red below.
Storm surge will be greatest near and just north of the location of landfall. This image show probabilities of surge greater than 4 feet.
Inland flooding will be a significant impact with Sandy. Here is the latest rainfall forercast. The highest probabilites for flooding will occur in areas in the regions shaded in red.