Nor’easter Pushing Up East Coast
A deepening center of low pressure, or nor’easter, will push up the east coast on Wednesday and Thursday this week producing a variety of hydro-meteorological impacts. While this system will be quite strong, it will not be nearly as strong as Sandy, which impacted the region a week ago.
Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. can expect strong and gusty winds, with beach erosion and minor to moderate storm surge and coastal flooding.
The axis of heaviest rainfall is currently expected to remain just offshore. Rainfall of one inch or more is outlined by the white line. While heavy rain does brush the immediate coast, most remains offshore.
Where the heavier rain falls is important as there are areas of increased inland flood vulnerability due to prior rainfall from Sandy. There areas are shaded in blue and purple.
Snow will fall inland, especially northern Vermont and New Hamshire into western Maine.
Due to the deepening low pressure and onshore flow, storm surge could reach two to six feet across coastal New Jersey and New York. While this surge could produce some coastal flooding, it will be nothing close to what occured with Sandy.
Overall, coastal section of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast can expect typical nor’easter conditions with strong winds, downed trees, and heavy rain, snow, and coastal flooding in spots.
Continued Dry Most Areas
Elsewhere, as I mentioned in the Weekly Water Outlook – it continues to be a quiet week with little significant precipitation. A number of BWO subscribers are in areas experiencing drought – from the Great Plains into Texas. I’m keeping a close eye on this area for any sign of a change. It continues to look like very little rain, if any at all, will fall over much of this region for the next ten days.
The area outlines in red (above) indicates rainfall over the next ten days. Green is only light rainfall.
Arctic Oscillation (AO) Now Positive
The AO recently turned positive after being negative most of the month of October. Remember that there can be a relationship between the AO and the alignment of the jet stream – as well as temperature and precipitation patterns. The AO is forecast to remain slightly positive through most of November. With only a slight signal, it might be hard to pin-point specific jet stream patterns. However, it does look like the change in the AO signal has tended to break down the persistent east coast trough of low pressure.