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I have a lot of important information to pass along today.

First off, I am issuing a new Trend Alert. For new subscribers, my Trend Alerts provide a “heads up” into the more significant trends regarding precipitation. In this case, I am issuing a Trend Alert for a prolonged period of well-below-normal rainfall for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and sections of the Southwest. This Alert also covers portions of the Southeast U.S.  I see very little rainfall within this area through the end of the month. One key numerical weather model is indicating only a 20% chance that this region will receive 1″ or more of rain through the end of October.

You might remember that I issued a Trend Alert (Heavy Rain) for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) on October 10th. Since that time, the region has received 2 to 4 times normal rainfall.

With the jet stream continuing to feed into the PNW – it looks a number of frontal systems will impact the region through next week. Thus, I’m continuing my Trend Alert for heavy precipitation for this region.

Seasonal Winter Outlook

NOAA released the outlook for winter. It will be a challenging forecast as the weak El Niño has diminished recently.


U.S. Drought Monitor

The latest update to the U.S. Drought Monitor follows. There has not been a lot of change due to the lack of rainfall over most of the nation. In the “Past 14 Day Percent of Normal” image below, you can see that only a small portion of the nation received above normal rainfall (blue-shaded spots). Most of the nation received either normal or below normal rainfall – thus not much improvement, or much change, to the Drought Monitor. An exception was portions of the Midwest where Missouri and Wisconsin experienced above-normal rainfall, thereby reducing drought impacts,

 Past 14 Days Percent of Normal Precipitation (yellow=near normal, red=below, blue=above)

U.S. Drought Monitor

I will be discussing these outlooks in more detail, as well as provide further insight, in the November BWO newsletter and in future posts. Stay tuned!