A cut off and closed area of low pressure is currently causing a wide variety of precipitation issues and impacts across the Midwest–from record snow to extreme rainfall and flash flooding.
A feeder band of moisture has been streaming northward throughout the day. This repeated pattern of streaming rainfall is a classic pattern for producing heavy rainfall along a narrow axis.
This axis currently extends from near Memphis, Tennessee north towards St. Louis. Fairly widespread rainfall from 2.5 to 4.0 inches have already fallen within this area with more on the way.
Weather models can have an especially difficult time predicing rainfall with an upper closed low. Currently, this low is forecast to drift southeast over the weekend and into next week. Following are two models indicating where heavy precipitation might occur. The first, an experimental model by NOAA moderates this streaming enhanced band a bit, but still brings in a widespread 2- to 4-inches of rain into the Southeast U.S.
Here is a forecast from the GFS global model. This model places the focus for heaviest rainfall over Kentucky, Tennessee, and portions of Alabama and Georgia.
It is going to be quite difficult pin-pointing where the heaviest rain will be as it likely will be aligned with a smaller-scale feature associated with a quasi-stationary streaming/repeated band of rainfall. However, based on the latest models, heavy rain is likely to slowly shift from the Midwest into the Southeast over the next few days. Here is the latest NOAA WPC rainfall forecast.
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