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The pattern of the passage of one cold front each week will continue with a front passing through the region during the middle of this week. As we have seen with the past several systems so far this fall, the areas of low pressure that form along the front track northeast, resulting in the more significant energy and precipitation moving well to our north. This should again be the case this week with the heaviest rainfall over the Ohio Valley.[book id=’1′ /]

There will be one subtle difference with this frontal passage. Southerly winds ahead of the system will be more pronounced, with a modest feed of moisture into the system. In this image, the yellow arrows show the feed of moisture into the system with the shaded green areas indicating rainfall. Moderate amounts of rain, in the one-half to around an inch range could fall over northern Mississippi and Alabama. Amounts will taper off quickly further east and south.

Here is the rainfall forecast for the next 5 days. Looking even farther ahead, I don’t see much change to this established pattern — with the active rainfall track from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley regions, with much lessor amounts over the Southeast U.S.