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Active weather will continue over parts of the nation this week and into next week as well. Here is an update on the potential for heavy rain or heavy snow this week.

As I mentioned in my weekly briefing, an active upper jet stream will transport weather systems into the middle and eastern section of the U.S. through this week and most of next week. Systems will arrive every 3 or 4 days for at least the next several weeks.

The first system is currently moving across parts of the Southeast U.S.. Precipitation was modest, with most areas receiving under 0.50 inches. However, there were a few spots that received near or a bit over 1.0 inch (green-shaded-spots), including scattered areas of Tennessee, Alabama, and Kentucky.


While this system produced fairly light precipitation, the next system, as well as systems next week, could produce heavier amounts. The axis of heaviest precipitation will align with the general location of a frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S. Take a look at the rainfall forcast for the next 7 days. This alignment (SW-NE) is based upon the position of this boundary. Any shift, north or south, could also shift the alignment of precipitation.

Be sure to note the purple-shaded area over parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. This represents over 1.8 inches of liquid precipitation, however it will be in the form of snow.


This image (source: WeatherCaster Harris) depicts the core of heaviest snow, possibly over a foot. Winter storm watches are posted for a large portion of the middle of the nation.

To my subscribers in Texas, there is a chance that a few storms could become severe tomorrow.


This week looks to me to represent the beginning of the spring flood season — and the late winter/spring transition — that will last on and off for the next few months. Systems are becoming more intense and “wetter” which will serve to either recharge upper soils or produce enough runoff the result in flooding.
While this is a natural occurrance, some areas will receive welcome precipitation while others areas will flood. It will be very important to monitor these changing trends over the next month for clues to spring flooding.