Tropical Storm Sandy Update

Tropical Storm Sandy increased strength over the past 24-hours and is now moving north at 14 mph. T.S. Sandy is located 95 miles south of Kingston Jamaica with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.

T.S. Sandy is expected to move north for the next 48-hours likely increasing to a Category I hurricane. While Sandy will remain off-shore, it will be close enough to the southeast Florida coast to produce gusty winds, enhance wave action, and produce heavy rainfall along and near the coastline.

 

Forecast Track for T.S. Sandy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most models show a fairly abrupt turn to the northeast on Friday. Here is an image showing an ensemble of hurricane track models. These same models show the storm developing into a Category I hurricane.

 

 

Further out, over the weekend, the picture is a bit more complicated. The most likely scenario is for Sandy to move northeast, with minimal impact to the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast U.S. However, if Sandy pushes just a bit further north, or expands its rain shield, it would bring heavy rain to far eastern sections of the Carolinas, Virginia, and the northeast U.S. Right now, this is a fairly low-confidence possibility, however, it is something that needs to be considered.

I can’t totally rule out the possibility of a heavy rain event over parts of the Northeast U.S. I will be following up on this situation over the next few days.

 

Rainfall Forecast – Next 5 Days