The larger-scale synoptic pattern this fall has been quite similar to the one that set up last winter. This pattern shifts the core of energy from Texas and Oklahoma northeast into the Great Lakes Region. This pattern tends to bypass the Southeast U.S. with the focus of heavier rain well to our north and west.
As we look ahead through this upcoming week, we see a vigorous pattern with a burst of energy ejecting out of Texas, moving across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, before heading into the Great Lakes Region. The following image shows the track of this upper energy. The axis of heavy rain, where several inches are likely, will be confined within this corridor.
At the surface, a cold front will push through the region between Wednesday and Friday. Without the upper support of atmospheric energy, initially dry air, and fast movement of the front, rainfall amounts will taper off significantly as the front moves east.
While this week will bring the passage of a cold front, rainfall will be well less than 0.5 inches in most spots, and will be inadequate to neither make much of a dent in the drought nor do much to recharge area water resources.