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Scattered Hit or Miss Storms Through The Week

It looks like a typical summer week across much of the Southeast U.S.  The jet stream will remain over the northern tier of the nation with a ridge of high pressure from Texas northward.  Hot and dry weather will prevail in this area.

Scattered storms will develop in the heat of the day, primarily during the period from 3 p.m. through 8 p.m.  Coverage of these storms will be hit or miss.  Some of the heavier amounts could near an inch, but other areas will receive little, if any, rainfall.  From a basin-scale perspective, coverage will be limited.  Upper soils are dry and will soak up significant amounts of precipitation.  Thus, minimal runoff is expected from the rainfall this week, with no significant improvement to area stream flow or lake inflows.

Here is a model showing the forcast change in soil moisture through early August.  Note that some areas show soil moisture improvement while others do not.  I would not put too much confidence in the specific areas of improvement.  However, it does tend to show that the patteren of scattered daily convection will persist into August.

A couple of tropical systems have developed in the Atlantic. The first could bring tropical rainfall to the Caribbean, but should not impact the Southeast U.S. this week.

Take Away Points

  • Hit or miss afternoon and evening storms
  • Scattered coverage
  • Minimal runoff
  • Minimal improvement in streamflow
  • Minimal increase in reservoir inflows
  • Minimal/Modest changes in intensity/coverage of drought