Widespread heavy rainfall occurred over the past 24-hours over parts of the Midwest and Southeast U.S. Much of Missouri received 1.0- to 2.5-inches of rain with pockets of heavier rain near 3 inches.
Very storm storms, producing severe weather, are moving across the Southeast U.S. with pockets of rain near or exceeding 3 inches. Here are the storm reports from yesterday. This path of severe weather is overspreading the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states today.
Next is the forecast for additional rain with this system. While each storm is capable of producing very heavy rain, the line is progressive, and heavy rain should linger in any one given area for less than 12 hours, and likely closer to 6 hours.
Here are the latest hydrology-related watches and warnings (color-shaded). Generally, most hydrologic impacts with this rain event will be localized – flash flooding, flooding of low spots, and urban flooding. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches are common, but with a northeast cell movement of 60 mph or more, the heavy rain often does not last too long. On the other hand, there will be significant “training” of thunderstorms as the overall line is only moving east slowly. Significant locally flooding issues can be expected, especially in urban locations and within higher elevations.
Generally, rain from this event will near, but not likely significantly exceed, significant (river) runoff thresholds. However, there will be a scattering of locations that will experience strong within-bank rises or rise into minor flood stage (yellow/orange squares).
Finally, heavy snow has occurred or is occurring over the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. The locations shaded in blue and red are likely to receive over 4 inches of snow.