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A slow-moving cold front will pass across the region this week, spreading heavy rain to parts of the Southeast U.S. The following image shows anticipated rainfall from this event. Note that the axis of heaviest rain will extend from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic region. Northern Mississippi and Alabama, North Georgia, and western sections of the Carolinas will again be on the southern fringe of heaviest rainfall.

I have been watching with interest this axis of rainfall. We have now had three events where significant rain has brushed northern reaches of our area. Is this unusual? Does this provide any hint as to the upcoming recharge season? Take a look at the image on the right. This shows normal November rainfall. You can see that it is normal for rainfall to be enhanced over Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia this time of the year. It is normal for higher elevations (white circle) to receive enhanced rainfall. It is normal for the drought-stricken southern sections of Georgia to receive less amounts of rain than sections furthern north. Thus, I don’t think we can read too much into this pattern – as to what might happen later this season, at least not yet.