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As we head into the middle of December, the atmosphere is becoming more active.

The impact of a negative-phased Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to play a role in shaping the alignment of the jet stream, and resulting precipitation trends.


Southeast U.S.

The negative AO is helping push the jet stream further south which will tend to steer moisture and upper energy towards the Southeast U.S. The next system will arrive early next week (Monday-Tuesday) with the possibility of a significant rain event from Louisiana, across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into South Carolina. While these systems have weakened in the past as they moved eastward, this system looks more favorable for soaking rainfall over areas in drought. An inch or two of rain is possible over a large part of the Southeast U.S. early next week.

A key factor to watch will be how far the rain sinks southeast in Georgia. It is possible that the heaviest rain will fall over central and northern Georgia more than within the core of deepest drought. Still, any rain in this area is needed and will help improve the drought situation.



Moisture will be limited with the system over the middle of the nation. Thus, while sections of Oklahoma, Kansas, and eastern Texas will receive some needed rainfall—it will be quite modest in quantity—with amounts generally under ½ inches. Unfortunately, the western two-thirds of Texas will receive no significant rainfall.


Pacific NW (PNW)

While there was a bit of a lull early this week, the pattern will become more focused and active late this weekend into early next week. Another 1- to 3-inches of rain (or heavy snow in higher elevations) can be expected.