As we approach the middle of November, it is not unusual for the atmosphere to become more active. Indeed, the jet stream is forecast to become more active the rest of the month–likely in response to the recent change in the Arctic Oscillation which tended to break down the persistent east coast trough of low pressure.
There are signs of an emerging precipitation trend that could result in increased precipitation over portions of Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and a portion of the Southeast U.S.
There will be two enhanced periods of rainfall. The first will be this weekend into next week (November 10-12) and another in the November 16-18 time frame. The first event will continue the trend of drought relief for portions of Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois.
I am continuing my Trend Alert for dry conditions over a broad section of the Southwest U.S., Great Plains, and Texas. Well-below-normal rainfall will persist in this region for the rest of the month. I am also continuing the Trend Alert for the Pacific Northwest due to the continuing focus of Pacific moisture.
I’ll discuss these trends in more detail in the Weekly Water Outlook.