Soaking Rainfall Over the Southeast U.S.
The weather pattern has changed significantly over parts of the Southeast U.S. since the middle of the month. With a strong negatively-phased Arctic Oscillation in place, storm tracks have aligned over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, North Georgia, and the western Carolinas.
Here is a summary of rainfall from this past system. Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulted in fairly heavy rainfall amounts. In the image below, areas of dark green indicate rainfall around an inch with the yellow streaks generally between 1 and 2 inches.
Valley, AL. 4.38″, Coker, AL. 2.83″, Prattville, AL. 2.70″
LaGrange, GA 2.93″, Bogart, GA 2.87″, Newnan, GA. 2.65″
It is interesting to note that strong storms moved over southern sections of Alabama and Southwest Georgia. Consequently, rainfall was enhanced, with an inch or two of needed rainfall over the core of drought from Columbus to Macon Georgia.
Pattern to Continue
Another system is on the way and will arrive late this week and this weekend. With colder air in place, the thermal boundary has pushed a bit further south, which should also push the storm track further south. Here is an image showing model output for this next event. While it is still early, it is possible that the core of drought in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina could receive another inch or two of rainfall.
Also, keep in mind that northern Mississippi and Alabama have been wet over the past few months. Significant runoff values will be around 1.5 inches or so for parts of these areas. Rivers experienced strong within-bank rises or isolated minor flooding from this recent event and could be prone to flooding, especially if rainfall would exceed 2 inches later this week.
This system brought record snow to the southern Plains and gave Little Rock its snowiest Christmas in 86 years. This system will continue to impact the Northeast’s interior with up to a foot of snow as well as strong gusty winds. A mix of rain, ice, and snow are possible just to the south of the heavy snow band.
( Credit: Image above Accuweather)